Retail investors have been holding hard by continuously pumping in
money when the FIIs have been withdrawing in FY 21-22.
FII flows started a negative trend started on Oct 21 but the DIIs were
on an upward trend. Hence, the market has not gone down substantially.
But the cracks in the DII story has started,
The first
to be impacted will be the Non-MF DII Inflows. These are basically retail
investors, who are directly investing in the stock market by buying shares.
These are basically inexperienced people catching a falling
knife
They have done buying at very high valuations. They have
already burnt their fingers. They will basically start evaluating their returns
and perhaps will start panic selling about 1 year from the highs of say Oct 21.
So, that panic selling may start say around Aug-Sep.
But the real question is when the redemptions in SIPs will
happen. Experts say – Never.
But the cracks already started in the SIP story as the May
22 inflows are lower than April -22.
Update - FII are again net sellers this week
https://www.indiainfoline.com/article/news-top-story/weekly-round-up-of-indian-equity-markets-122062400140_1.html
Keep a tab on the volume of transactions in market - Especially ratio of Retail / Institutional transactions
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