Exciting time for a derivatives trader in Indian market

"Ha!, this is the time, we had been waiting for long" - said one of my friend, who is a trader, trying to do a STRADDLE.

Lot of monkeys were jumping in the Indian stock market. These so called "Self proclaimed gurus" of Indian Stock market were with projections of 35k / 40k and some even 50k for census. Some of them are treated as gods or projected as gods by the media, such as Ashwani Gujaral, Jhunjunwala. All of them were proven wrong. They made lot of sound on CCD (Cafe Coffee Day) IPO, where I reiterated that the price is way higher than the inherent valuations and the assumptions are wrong. Anyway, the market is back to 25k.

This was bound to happen as the underlying health of companies have not improved. The  market pundits have again got it wrong and here is the myth v/s reality

Myth : Pundits say India withered the market storm due
Reality : India benefited from the EM flows which happened when job growth did not doomed in US as investors deemed it as confidence in "No increment scenario of US treasury rates"

Myth : Foreign Investors lost confidence in Modi Government
Reality : Investor never came due to Modi Government. They knew very well, system can not be corrected very soon. The real sell off has already started in May-June, when China showed early signals of a balloon, as things did not picked up after Chinese new year.

Myth : Indian Equities have moved into attractive state
Reality :  There is still lot of room to go down. There is still an inherent difference between the Equity and Debt market. The credit growth rate is less than 10%. Also, the debt market is showing lot of weakness, WHICH IS LOWEST IN 20 YEAR. Most of the Indian companies are highly leveraged. I have written about them in the past. "THE BIGGEST THREAT TO INDIAN ECONOMY IS THE HIGH LEVERAGE OF THE CONGLOMERATES IN INDIA." This implies that Indian companies dont have bankable projects. India seems to emulating the Indonesian model of cronyism led growth.

Myth : Lot of money is going in Startups and will increase exponentially
Reality : I would say these were the second set of the monkeys, who threw good money after bad. Just hold your breathe and you will see that investors will demand results and valuations will nose dive in some of these startups.
(Just a word of caveat/caution, some of the startups

Next Events to be watched

Myth : Fed rate decision
Reality : It will not have major impact as most of the equity will be battered down by that time. The real events to be watched are the yields on the debt of some of the conglomerates and companies, which are going to list their bonds. Airtel today announced they will raise in Pound for first time. These yields will decide fate of these big companies, who have lot of weightage on SENSEX.

The market has gone into a limbo, where it is "Party Time" for the Derivatives Traders and people who suffered the most are the

1. Retail Traders/Investors who followed the so called Gurus
2. SIP/MF Investors as most of funds flowed through these routes in past

I am personally very sorrow for the 2nd category as they were being misled into the rally by the reputed media/newspaper to invest into SIP/MF when market was on a high. 

Bunch of IAS opportunists

This is in reference to many media news articles and the letters of bunch of IAS cadre people, which has been floating in the social media.

Background
There are 10-15 odd Group A services such as IAS, IPS, IRS, IDAS, IRTS, ICLS.etc...Due to some urgency, some privileges were granted as temporary measures to IAS cadres

What is written in these letters
Some IAS people have declared that
"Privileges are our birth right and no one can part that away from us" in the same manner as Bal Gangadhar Tilak declared 100 years ago
"Freedom is my birth right and no one can part that away from me"

Words are similar but spirits are totally opposite - one is full of fear and the other is fearless declaration of the great freedom fighter.

Is everyone writing this
Personally, I have deep respect for some of bureaucrats of all cadres. Many of them are IAS also such as T N Seshan, Ashok Khemka etc. They have exemplied "True service to the nation" without looking for personal benefits like promotions etc.

These set of people writing these letters are also from IAS cadre but with a different spirit "Incentives of faster promotion and higher salaries are needed for any service to the nation". I wonder if they declared the same in their interviews.

Flawed reasoning in letters

1. Border/Naxal Areas - Armed forces/CISF/CRPF and yes, IDAS also do the same
2. Multiple Responsibilities / Negotiations with MP/MLA's - Every Civil services has the same burden of responsibilities and in similar volume and intensity. IDAS also negotiates with a Lt. General, who has 1 lack people under him ready to kill and die themselves on his one order and the Lt. General has grown up 30 years gradually in a system which promotes seniority ethos. Imagine a 35 year old negotiating with him. MP/MLA's are far easier to handle. 
3. Rank in UPSC - Come on, that is morons logic especially after 2013, in 1 optional and 4 GS scenario, UPSC has become a dart ball game. The difference between Rank 1 and 1000 is mostly luck and some rote learning. Also, there are many in IFS, IPS, IRS and even lesser known services, who dropped IAS in favor of other cadres.

Solution

1. These people are opportunistic and there are high correlation between opportunism and corruption. So, these people should be put on "Vigilance alert" for their future actions. 
2. System itself is flawed. Group A was designed for britishers and should be abolished
3. Common training for all cadres and then service allocation on basis on performance in training, of 2 years, which gives higher chances of correct allocation, than existing "Rote and Quote" UPSC exams..