"Ha!, this is the time, we had been waiting for long" - said one of my friend, who is a trader, trying to do a STRADDLE.
Lot of monkeys were jumping in the Indian stock market. These so called "Self proclaimed gurus" of Indian Stock market were with projections of 35k / 40k and some even 50k for census. Some of them are treated as gods or projected as gods by the media, such as Ashwani Gujaral, Jhunjunwala. All of them were proven wrong. They made lot of sound on CCD (Cafe Coffee Day) IPO, where I reiterated that the price is way higher than the inherent valuations and the assumptions are wrong. Anyway, the market is back to 25k.
This was bound to happen as the underlying health of companies have not improved. The market pundits have again got it wrong and here is the myth v/s reality
Myth : Pundits say India withered the market storm due
Reality : India benefited from the EM flows which happened when job growth did not doomed in US as investors deemed it as confidence in "No increment scenario of US treasury rates"
Myth : Foreign Investors lost confidence in Modi Government
Reality : Investor never came due to Modi Government. They knew very well, system can not be corrected very soon. The real sell off has already started in May-June, when China showed early signals of a balloon, as things did not picked up after Chinese new year.
Myth : Indian Equities have moved into attractive state
Reality : There is still lot of room to go down. There is still an inherent difference between the Equity and Debt market. The credit growth rate is less than 10%. Also, the debt market is showing lot of weakness, WHICH IS LOWEST IN 20 YEAR. Most of the Indian companies are highly leveraged. I have written about them in the past. "THE BIGGEST THREAT TO INDIAN ECONOMY IS THE HIGH LEVERAGE OF THE CONGLOMERATES IN INDIA." This implies that Indian companies dont have bankable projects. India seems to emulating the Indonesian model of cronyism led growth.
Myth : Lot of money is going in Startups and will increase exponentially
Reality : I would say these were the second set of the monkeys, who threw good money after bad. Just hold your breathe and you will see that investors will demand results and valuations will nose dive in some of these startups.
(Just a word of caveat/caution, some of the startups
Next Events to be watched
Myth : Fed rate decision
Reality : It will not have major impact as most of the equity will be battered down by that time. The real events to be watched are the yields on the debt of some of the conglomerates and companies, which are going to list their bonds. Airtel today announced they will raise in Pound for first time. These yields will decide fate of these big companies, who have lot of weightage on SENSEX.
The market has gone into a limbo, where it is "Party Time" for the Derivatives Traders and people who suffered the most are the
1. Retail Traders/Investors who followed the so called Gurus
2. SIP/MF Investors as most of funds flowed through these routes in past
I am personally very sorrow for the 2nd category as they were being misled into the rally by the reputed media/newspaper to invest into SIP/MF when market was on a high.
Lot of monkeys were jumping in the Indian stock market. These so called "Self proclaimed gurus" of Indian Stock market were with projections of 35k / 40k and some even 50k for census. Some of them are treated as gods or projected as gods by the media, such as Ashwani Gujaral, Jhunjunwala. All of them were proven wrong. They made lot of sound on CCD (Cafe Coffee Day) IPO, where I reiterated that the price is way higher than the inherent valuations and the assumptions are wrong. Anyway, the market is back to 25k.
This was bound to happen as the underlying health of companies have not improved. The market pundits have again got it wrong and here is the myth v/s reality
Myth : Pundits say India withered the market storm due
Reality : India benefited from the EM flows which happened when job growth did not doomed in US as investors deemed it as confidence in "No increment scenario of US treasury rates"
Myth : Foreign Investors lost confidence in Modi Government
Reality : Investor never came due to Modi Government. They knew very well, system can not be corrected very soon. The real sell off has already started in May-June, when China showed early signals of a balloon, as things did not picked up after Chinese new year.
Myth : Indian Equities have moved into attractive state
Reality : There is still lot of room to go down. There is still an inherent difference between the Equity and Debt market. The credit growth rate is less than 10%. Also, the debt market is showing lot of weakness, WHICH IS LOWEST IN 20 YEAR. Most of the Indian companies are highly leveraged. I have written about them in the past. "THE BIGGEST THREAT TO INDIAN ECONOMY IS THE HIGH LEVERAGE OF THE CONGLOMERATES IN INDIA." This implies that Indian companies dont have bankable projects. India seems to emulating the Indonesian model of cronyism led growth.
Myth : Lot of money is going in Startups and will increase exponentially
Reality : I would say these were the second set of the monkeys, who threw good money after bad. Just hold your breathe and you will see that investors will demand results and valuations will nose dive in some of these startups.
(Just a word of caveat/caution, some of the startups
Next Events to be watched
Myth : Fed rate decision
Reality : It will not have major impact as most of the equity will be battered down by that time. The real events to be watched are the yields on the debt of some of the conglomerates and companies, which are going to list their bonds. Airtel today announced they will raise in Pound for first time. These yields will decide fate of these big companies, who have lot of weightage on SENSEX.
The market has gone into a limbo, where it is "Party Time" for the Derivatives Traders and people who suffered the most are the
1. Retail Traders/Investors who followed the so called Gurus
2. SIP/MF Investors as most of funds flowed through these routes in past
I am personally very sorrow for the 2nd category as they were being misled into the rally by the reputed media/newspaper to invest into SIP/MF when market was on a high.
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