Wednesday, August 31, 2022

Safir Anand Twitter Space - 31.08.2022

Market Lookout

  1. FED will squeeze liquidity for sure for controlling inflation
  2. Recession will be there but it might be short lived
  3. NIFTY will never go to 12k and people wasting time 
  4. Opportunity for investment is always there irrespective of NIFTY levels


Will money move to FD/Real Estate if interest rate decrease  - - Inflation will come down and money might stay with equities only

Sectors that can perform well - 

  1. Infrastructure
  2. Defence
  3. Real estate

Infra companies like DLF are bullish on growth

Signs of Growth of Infra - Dams, Roads

Don't follow people, who keep on changing their statement every now and then 

PSU Banks can overperform 

  1. Technology is substituting for lazy staff and inefficiency
  2. Many are trading below book value
  3. Drastic Change in Fundamental
  4. Good Amount of Reserves


Sold Big Caps in IT and buy small caps


Oil is a very complex sector and very difficult to predict and stakeholders have conflicting interests. Hidden sides with WTO and global geopolitics, so almost all oil Pundits end up making mistakes. 

The stock market is a slave to earnings in long term. Earnings will keep on diverging and converging for sectors. 

In the extremely short term, the market is decided by the emotional quotient 

LIC has historically bailed out the market to support the government but now it is independent. 

TARAJU = Price / Value

Zamato demand is coming from long-term money on institutions and it seems that there is there from Institutional Investors

Institutional Money is a good tracker for checking the long-term outlook

Interest and Experience in evaluating the individual company matters. Evaluation takes time and patience. 

Keep tracking the company and stay with some cash when the market looks costly. Always look for what to sell from your portfolio. Keep the portfolio updated as per research. 

Don't connect research with the market. Markets are mad in the short term

1/3 will always outperform 2/3 companies

Select your sector of expertise and gain insights

Even big funds find it tough to evaluate many companies

Don't follow anyone's portfolio as the time of entries are different for different people. 

Even RJ and WF failed multiple times, but they keep on refreshing their portfolio

It is like a chess board, at every move, the chess board will change

MNC Manufacturing was a trend in the past

Smartest Investors - They put their foot in the door with minuscule shareholding. They start with a 1000 increase to 10000 and then to 100000 of these extremely cheap stocks.

Bogey Model - will force you to read more and analyze more, 

Check the growth of market share, market share will need a lot of time to analyze - Don'tThe best get dazzled by the Hype around new technology or project (3D Printing Example)

Best target company will have no direct news - It will have only indirect news

Reliance acquisition of Campacola will force them to acquire more brands and put pricing pressure on the commercial space

Reliance will make new private labels and fight with big brands by buying small brands


Gurdutt - no one likes him, goes to Wahida Rehman, 

Going away from the crowd - analyze in peace, 

Fund 

  1. don't buy very small companes
  2. No exit
  3. Premium has to be paid if big fund buys
  4. Retail Investors have some advantage over these funds in terms of buying at reasonable prices without increasing the prices

Example - Aerospace, Industrial Safety .......invested and forget and then it started increasing, analysed in depth, invested more........Rs 50 Rs..........Rs 700 ............Rs 2000.........DII..........Rs 

Past Examples - Avanti Fields, Unique Hotels, Apollo

We should not be fazed by the lack of buzz around the small company. Dilemma is when it starts to increase, we may make a mistake as things and fundamentals may change at that point of time.

phoenix resorts in Goa - I invested .......market cap 12 Cr.......partnership (3cr+3cr) 50%......news came....more land, south India......promoter mentality was not changing and increasing growth........Rs 24.......today 46

tomorrow - management may change..........has to be revisited again

So, it is again the chess board scenario, keep on evaluating the chess board again and again


Source

  1. Brokerage Reports - 
  2. Individual Investors

Same data can be interpreted by different people differently 

Telecom is not a wealth creator - there are different questions and opportunity interpretation may differ

Zuric Axiom - there should be something for the next guy on the table, else the stock is bound to fail

Many pockets of efficiency - mispricing

Nitin 

FII has returned back but the structural return is not very clear. Outflows of FII show worse of selling is over but the knee-jerk reaction is possible due to US. FIIs looking for growth economies but the flow will be sector-specific and not in a broad manner. Every bull run has a flavor and we have to identify those sectors. 

Picking Stocks in Market - Already illustrated by oil example that pick up only what you understand

ICICI Bank outperformed HDFC

Market rise yesterday was not justified, 1600 points is absurd, Fed comments have real effect, SENSEX has not fallen enough, 

Like Prashant Says - (Psychology + Temperament) matters 

Nitin - Volatility is a friend of investors, buy long-term targets, take out money from the market in squirrel cash, only use it when the world is worried, and keep on taking out money from the market