Market Lookout
- FED will squeeze liquidity for sure for controlling inflation
- Recession will be there but it might be short lived
- NIFTY will never go to 12k and people wasting time
- Opportunity for investment is always there irrespective of NIFTY levels
Will money move to FD/Real Estate if interest rate decrease - - Inflation will come down and money might stay with equities only
Sectors that can perform well -
- Infrastructure
- Defence
- Real estate
Infra companies like DLF are bullish on growth
Signs of Growth of Infra - Dams, Roads
Don't follow people, who keep on changing their statement every now and then
PSU Banks can overperform
- Technology is substituting for lazy staff and inefficiency
- Many are trading below book value
- Drastic Change in Fundamental
- Good Amount of Reserves
Sold Big Caps in IT and buy small caps
Oil is a very complex sector and very difficult to predict and stakeholders have conflicting interests. Hidden sides with WTO and global geopolitics, so almost all oil Pundits end up making mistakes.
The stock market is a slave to earnings in long term. Earnings will keep on diverging and converging for sectors.
In the extremely short term, the market is decided by the emotional quotient
LIC has historically bailed out the market to support the government but now it is independent.
TARAJU = Price / Value
Zamato demand is coming from long-term money on institutions and it seems that there is there from Institutional Investors
Institutional Money is a good tracker for checking the long-term outlook
Interest and Experience in evaluating the individual company matters. Evaluation takes time and patience.
Keep tracking the company and stay with some cash when the market looks costly. Always look for what to sell from your portfolio. Keep the portfolio updated as per research.
Don't connect research with the market. Markets are mad in the short term
1/3 will always outperform 2/3 companies
Select your sector of expertise and gain insights
Even big funds find it tough to evaluate many companies
Don't follow anyone's portfolio as the time of entries are different for different people.
Even RJ and WF failed multiple times, but they keep on refreshing their portfolio
It is like a chess board, at every move, the chess board will change
MNC Manufacturing was a trend in the past
Smartest Investors - They put their foot in the door with minuscule shareholding. They start with a 1000 increase to 10000 and then to 100000 of these extremely cheap stocks.
Bogey Model - will force you to read more and analyze more,
Check the growth of market share, market share will need a lot of time to analyze - Don'tThe best get dazzled by the Hype around new technology or project (3D Printing Example)
Best target company will have no direct news - It will have only indirect news
Reliance acquisition of Campacola will force them to acquire more brands and put pricing pressure on the commercial space
Reliance will make new private labels and fight with big brands by buying small brands
Gurdutt - no one likes him, goes to Wahida Rehman,
Going away from the crowd - analyze in peace,
Fund
- don't buy very small companes
- No exit
- Premium has to be paid if big fund buys
- Retail Investors have some advantage over these funds in terms of buying at reasonable prices without increasing the prices
Example - Aerospace, Industrial Safety .......invested and forget and then it started increasing, analysed in depth, invested more........Rs 50 Rs..........Rs 700 ............Rs 2000.........DII..........Rs
Past Examples - Avanti Fields, Unique Hotels, Apollo
We should not be fazed by the lack of buzz around the small company. Dilemma is when it starts to increase, we may make a mistake as things and fundamentals may change at that point of time.
phoenix resorts in Goa - I invested .......market cap 12 Cr.......partnership (3cr+3cr) 50%......news came....more land, south India......promoter mentality was not changing and increasing growth........Rs 24.......today 46
tomorrow - management may change..........has to be revisited again
So, it is again the chess board scenario, keep on evaluating the chess board again and again
Source
- Brokerage Reports -
- Individual Investors
Same data can be interpreted by different people differently
Telecom is not a wealth creator - there are different questions and opportunity interpretation may differ
Zuric Axiom - there should be something for the next guy on the table, else the stock is bound to fail
Many pockets of efficiency - mispricing
Nitin
FII has returned back but the structural return is not very clear. Outflows of FII show worse of selling is over but the knee-jerk reaction is possible due to US. FIIs looking for growth economies but the flow will be sector-specific and not in a broad manner. Every bull run has a flavor and we have to identify those sectors.
Picking Stocks in Market - Already illustrated by oil example that pick up only what you understand
ICICI Bank outperformed HDFC
Market rise yesterday was not justified, 1600 points is absurd, Fed comments have real effect, SENSEX has not fallen enough,
Like Prashant Says - (Psychology + Temperament) matters
Nitin - Volatility is a friend of investors, buy long-term targets, take out money from the market in squirrel cash, only use it when the world is worried, and keep on taking out money from the market
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