Saturday, September 25, 2010

First week in US

I would say right on the very first week, I got to realize that
1. Why people call US to be greatest country in the world
2. Why economist say this country is going down.
and
3. Why I think USD will go down (below 42 INR/USD by December)
4. Why India and China is future of the world

Let me illustrate 1 by 1

1. People are really warm here. They are not only open, they are willing to lend you an extra hand. Infact I would say - After travelling so many countries around the world, I found people in US to be most cooperative. Though I am bit biased as I live in North Carolina which is known for friendly people. But this soft power is absent in India and China. In fact, I found China to be most unfriendly place till now. I think it is due to the culture that Chinese people do not want to cooperate and they are too mean and selfish in negotiations and relations. India is in between. But yes US is true soft power.

2. Lot of inefficiency and overcapacity all over the place. Lawyers earn more than engineers. Value destroyers (lawyers) are powerful enough. Taxes are really high. No incentive for creating value. Informal channels such as tips in restaurants. Free buses, which are mostly empty.
Hence, the economists seem to be right.

3. An overburdened economy can survive this for long. Broad unemployment (not net) is close to 20%. This means that 1 in every 5 person is facing blues. In absence of any expansion space, inducing inflation and hence, lowering the relative wages and taxes seems to be the only method of escaping the deflation spiral.

4. China/ India - Wage and taxes are low, Lawyers are not powerful, People want to become Engineers (read value creators). Though there is some BS going on in India, China seems to be spearing ahead with unprecedented pace.

No comments: