Is Recession Round the corner??

I was thinking about the business situation in real life and found a very interesting case in my home only.

My brother has an AC sales, distribution and repair business in Gurgaon. In last 5 years, he had seen his percentage margins going south slowly but steadily. The trend accelerated in last 2 years due increase in
1. Cost of Capital (10% Fixed income rates in India)
2. Cost of Labor

The repair is the worst hit business as cost of spairs and labor cost of mechanic has increased by 100% literally, while the unit repair rates are pretty same. Much of it has to do with the 15% food/commodity inflation in India. He has to decide to either run at loss or shut down repair business totally.

I am not sure what is the way out of this situation. I have advised him that Recession is round the corner. Wait for the inputs to subsidize.

Things apart, some of the concepts of marketing such as finding blue ocean of niche segments seem to be too hard to implement if you just have 0.001% of the highly fragmented market.

Short USD Long Yen, Major Asian Currencies

Just an hour ago, US Dolloar (aka Treasury) is downgraded for the first time by US based agency - S&P. Though it has already been downgraded by the biggest investor in US economy - China. When this happened some 6 months ago, almost all my American Classmates at my Alternative investment class, in Kenan Flagler Business School, UNC were of the opinion that this is none-sense and nobody cares a damn about Chinese downgrade.

I argued a bit but then there were people, who believe that they have better knowledge of the financial world. This points out one of the biggest problems with US business Schools Graduates. They operate as just like Muslim Ghetto's and believes the world outside the ghetto is stupid. THANK GOD, I went to CEIBS to get broad outlook of world rather than narrow US based outlook of world.

Anyway, its time for some quick buck. I am sure many long-short macro funds would have milled millions by now.

Unemployed from last 2 years

Last 2 years have been wonderful journey. I went to CEIBS for my MBA with both sweet and bitter experience. This included a brief stint of 5 months to US at Kenan Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina.

From last 2 years, I have been away from the regular hectic life of being in a job and doing something which you do not enjoy sometimes. Last 2 years were bit unique in the sense that I was doing only what I really want to do. For Example - I did 3 internships during my MBA and 4th just after my MBA. This is sort of a record but I really liked working on these small projects. I believe that I have created strong impact in 2 of my internships.

This made me to realize that this unemployment of last 2 years have made me to realize something unique about me that I yearn for and enjoy creating impact. The next big challenge would be to maintain the same enthusiasm of creating impact in short span of time, when I join a new job.

I thank my luck for being unemployed for last 2 years.