Sunday, May 17, 2020

Uber - 3000 people fired with 3 minute Zoom Call

This is the new normal in the world due to ongoing "Once in a century" kind of event. Companies have no option as they are not supposed to do Charity and have to compete in hyper competitive era.

But from individual point of view, it is really devastating. There are normally 4-5 stages, whenever something like that happens to us

  1. Denial
  2. Anger
  3. Bargaining
  4. Depression
  5. Acceptance
The only sober advise for such people can be that instead of getting to stages one-by-one. It is better to directly jump from 1->5 or Denial -> Acceptance.

Coming back to the macro economic view, monthly salaries are not very good for the economy also, as salaried people are bound to be risk averse and less innovative. This is not good for both the economy as well as civilization. I once read a very interesting question in my school book that who are the people, who are most important to the civilization. It is not the billionaires but the picaso, pluto, innovators and the scientists, who helped the world to move forward. IT has enabled these thinkers and innovators to earn big bucks such as the case of Facebook, Twitter etc...


Even if one is salaried person, hate salary like hell. There are 3 addictions mentioned by Naseb Taleb

  1. Carbohydrate
  2. Drugs
  3. Monthly Salary
Drugs are widely discussed, but why the Carbohydrates and Monthly salaries are not discussed, is lack of intelligence in popular media

Once more, I am sorry for using harsh words for someone who might have lost job, but try to think on these lines and prepare for a greater goals for future, while managing your current with basic lifestyle.


















Friday, May 01, 2020

Is the market out of woods?

No, the market is not out of woods. There is no long term positive environment for the business as of now.

The current PE of the Nifty is 22.35, which is too high for current environment.

Retail participation seems to be very high. March was good time and may be April, but not now. 

The market is overbought and rich at the moment and should be a crying signal for staying away. Wait till September, when the winters set in Northern Hemisphere and when the market is back to level around 18-20 range.

Advisory 
  1. Keep portfolio tech focused
  2. Consumption story is strong 
  3. Staples within consumption story
  4. Avoid CAPEX heavy 
  5. No new investment, better exit around peak summer early monsoon - July / August