Urgent Need of UCC (Uniform Civil Code) to prevent future tensions - “Ticking Demographic Bomb”

Urgent Need of UCC (Uniform Civil Code) to prevent future tensions - “Ticking Demographic Bomb”

(There are many gross overestimation done to make ease in analysis, but still trends will be similar)

Not going into the details and issues around "Love Jihad", I did some detailed analysis of the gender ratio's of Hindus, Muslims, Christians, Sikhs etc in India and came to following conclusions

1.        Muslims constitute around 15% of population officially (18% unofficially due to Bangladeshis and other illegal and ignored)

2.        Their (950) sex ratios are better than Hindus (931)

3.        All 5 major non-muslim communities such as Hindus, Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains have lower percentage of percentage of population in 0-6 years age than national average

4.        Jains just have 10% in 0-6 age, while Hindus have 15% in 0-6 years

5.        Child sex ratio is all time low at 914 in 2011

6.        Christian (2.3%) is the only group with more men than women

7.        In addition to this Muslims (3.4) have a higher TFR (Total Fertility Rates) than all major communities such as Hindus (2), Christians (2.1), Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains (1.4), who interestingly have lower percentage of percentage of population in 0-6 years age than national average

8.         India is 18% of world population, with population growth rate of 1.41% ranking 102 in world. India is primarily young with 65% below 35 years. 50% is below 25 years. That mean this 50% is in the age around marriage

9.         The worst male/female ratio are in the age group 0-10 years (1.14)

10.     The second worst and of immediate concern is 15–24 years: 1.09 male(s)/female

11.     Previous generation was in comfortable range with 65 years and over: 0.908 male(s)/female and current generation is also not very bad

The above data clearly indicate a demographic socio-economic Reverse “Love Jihad” is bound to happen. Let us analyze what happened in Haryana

1.         What people in Haryana did when they found they don’t have brides, they went outside from UP / Himachal

2.         They did not went to Rajasthan at it was equally pathetic

Now let us imagine that Hindus, Muslims, Christians are tiny states like Haryana, UP, Himanchal. Let do some scenario analysis

Current Scenario

With m/f ratio close to 1.0, no major threat

Short Term Scenario (5-10 years)

15-25 reaches age of marriage, but we have 9% more men than women, means 9% men will not get bride. This is same as Haryana situation.

Solution - > Bride import will begin to start

Initially Muslims will be difficult to convince to marry to Hindus, so may be Christians will be the first exporter of brides to Hindus/Jains /Sikhs etc

Medium Term Scenario (10-15 years)

Now lets imagine this 0-10 years group with male to female ratio of 1.14 reaches the age of 20 after 20 years

Scenario 1 :- (Reverse Love Jihad) Indian muslims accepts export of brides to Hindus as Hindus lack them. Struggle for brides will intensify. If Muslims accepts UCC (Uniform Civil Code), there are high chances they will mingle themselves with mainstream.

Scenario 2:- Some ISIS like organization get upstart in India and ask Muslim to reject UCC and harden Muslim Extremism. Indian Muslims deny export of brides to Hindus. Hindus still need them then it is a dangerous situation which will either lead to forced conversion of either Hindus to Muslims to marry or will lead clashes.

Hence, UCC is immediate need of the hour to help bridge the divide between Hindus and Muslims so that there can be easy exchange of brides. Similar to case of Haryana, Bride exchange between territories (read here religion) is bound to happen. Else this is “Ticking Demographic Bomb”

Also, this also breaks apart a myth that Islam is anti-woman, yes it is indeed if you look the pity situation of women in Islam, but perhaps Hindus are more anti-women. This is because, even though Hindus have higher respect and stature of women in society than Islam, but the higher class hindus are simply preventing women birth in the first place.

Digital Marketing

What do you think is the most effective way of using digital marketing?

Following is part of my comment on the above mentioned topic -

Though, the decision is subjective based on the product, competitors and buyers profile, but this is the most important question, which almost all marketing managers face. Though social media has zoomed ahead in recent years, most marketing people still put their budget on the SEO and Analytics. Based on my own consulting assignments in Digital Marketing domain in China, I believe there are 2 problems as to why Social Media coverage may not be effective.
1. Horizontal Issues - Most marketing managers have not been trained or are unaware of the techniques/tools which can be used for analysis of Social Media. When it comes to convincing team members, then probably social media fails.
2. Vertical Issues - Existing Technique/Tools are yet to prove themselves. Partly because Social Media is itself a recent event. When it comes to convincing Finance manager or Top Management, then Social Media investments mostly fails to convince.

Why Taxing Rich is a stupid idea

There is an interesting discussion about taxing the rich and its pitfalls.

It is such a simple formula, which unfortunately Development economics fail to acknowledge with their blind follow up of the Differential taxing regime. I am not rich, but I am still not in support of taxing the rich excessively. Actually, rich are the one who facilitate capital formation and investment, which is necessary for economic growth. But at the same time, inheritance tax should be there as this leads to creation of inequality. 

REC Dilemma

The REC Dilemma (Extract from one of my post on another forum)

Govt. does not have money for a long term incentive /subsidy. I guess some state governments would come up with innovative mechanisms (remember it was Gujarat, who mobilized the whole solar sector in India through their INR15 PPA in 2010.

I agree there are legal instruments, which can be water tight, but Private off takers would shun from them. One more factor is that soon the supply is going to outstrip the demand. So, the Private off takers would have the lion share in negotiating terms of the PPA contract.

If the Govt. is not able to enforce the RPO, then REC is dead before 2017. Guess - who will risk their investments in say 2014 onward, towards a mechanism, which has no visibility beyond next 3 years. If there is no strong step by the Govt., then I strongly believe that the last REC project would be commissioned in 2013 and there would be no project 2014 on-wards. Sometimes, I got perplexed to see the nos. regarding the pricing and volume on the exchanges. Is this scenario sustainable??

Way forward is for the Govt. to link financing of REC's (or any other new mechanisms) through some out of the box RPO implementation. One more thing, we are not paying attention to the RPO obligated entities. Step into their shoes and you would find RPO is not a fair game for them. How can you penalize them when they are struggling for their own survival. Industrial growth in last 6 months have been below 2% for 3 months.

AFSPA

Someone said AFSPA should be repealed. I was also of the similar opinion till I devolved deep into AFSPA.

I fully sympathize and agree with what naysayers said. But my dear friends - consider the situation in which the militants are roaming around frequently. Would you prefer a Army personnel to stand on the road or the militant. I for sure would feel safer with presence of Army than presence of militant. There was a Bollywood movie in which a ATS (Anti Terror squad) has killed some terrorist preemptively. The lawyer of the policemen asked the same question to the judge - Who would you give gun to protect your house, a militant or a cop ?????

The response was -

...what if the army presumes you to be a terrorist?The army under AFSPA can arrest and detain anyone without warrant if they feel that the person might be a terrorist which is the deprivation of basic human right

Dear Lucky, It was but after many incidents that the cry for repealing this act has been raised by the masses in the north east. I think it was not advocated to remove it from anywhere else in India where it was needed. And please..don't refer bollywood movies to understand matters of such grave seriousness.. I can't comment on Kashmir. It is a sensitive issue. But I empathize with the innocent people who suffer because of Power Misuse...Its only the common folks who suffer. You have to be there to understand the real situation..

Yes, the issue is complex and I agree that you have to be there to feel it. I agree its easier to write while sitting in comfortable place in Delhi but the situation might have been different if I would have been in Manipur or Kashmir. The presumptions of army are really not the right thing. But still we need to find solution to improve the AFSPA like intense scrutiny of the case by other central agencies and solution deadline of say 1 month. I believe AFSPA is evil but their non presence is worse. It may lead to violation of human right of 1 out of 10000 individuals, but it is collectively good for rest all 9,999 people. But yes, the agony of that 1 individual is something which needs solution. 

The world is not flat - Google+

The world is not flat - Google+

Domestic Solar Panel Manufacturing Industry in India

There is surely something wrong.

Link to the Report on Domestic Content Requirement


Either everyone is wrong or India is only wrong. Whatever be the case, at the moment, you have to be Roman if you are in Rome. India should do something to protect the domestic solar Industry.

1. If the domestic solar industry flourishes, then they would be able to reduce the cost in medium term and match the cost in long term. 
2. There is interest of Solar developers but that is short term interest for the country.

Is solar going the same way the heavy industry for Thermal Power Production was going 10 years ago. There was a time when 40% of the Chinese Thermal Industry was based on demand from India.

Govt. need to put in substantial efforts to make India a manufacturing hub.

Economics blogging: Salute to the India of ideas | The Economist

Economics blogging: Salute to the India of ideas | The Economist

I really liked the statements
1. And perhaps the country’s brightest economists are simply rubbish at communicating sharp ideas to the policymakers, activists, media types, business leaders and members of the public who could make use of them.

2. The contributors, by and large, are Indians, or people of Indian origin based in America and elsewhere. Their challenge is to engage their countrymen. If they succeed, the rewards could be magnificent.

This means the solution is the Indian economist but not the one like Kaushik Basu, whom I once read told sarcastically, about beggars - "if he does not accept 10 paisa (or something really small) then you will say this as a result of inflation"

Economist like Kaushik Basu are the real perils of India as they know simple facts but are biased due to their positions and alienation. Such economist are dangerous for India's future. But you know what - Govt. has made him along with the legendary (sarcastically used) to be the "Top Economist of India" - Thats the peril of India.  

MGNREGA

Mahatama Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, 2005 This was perhaps one of the rare incidence when all the parties are speaking in the favor of once particular scheme. This scheme have really moved the things and for the first time perhaps stakeholders seems to be working in sync for a national scheme. Most important the scheme has a local flavor as the labor has to provided within 5 kms of radius of the village Stakeholders 1. Rural Farmer (landless or laborer) Family as job card is for full family. Now this scheme has included 5 cr (of 1.7 cr families) = one fifts of 25 cr rural labor (not population) 2. BC 3. Adhar 4. Auditor 5. Collector 6. State Govt (pays 1/4 of material cost and Administrative Cost). Have to pay unemployment allowance of min 100 day wage otherwise. 7. Central Govt.(pays 3/4 of material cost, wages and some admin) Issues 1. Reimbursement (allocation) not as per demand 2. Audit related 3. No skill upgradation 4. Poor Quality Work 5. Fake Enrollments AP has been considered a success story as they have appointed 3rd party auditors. My opinion :- The scheme is good but the object is wrong. I would repeat the impression of Deng Xiaoping - Move people out of villages to factory NREGA is doing opposite. It is taking people from factories to villages. It is sort of competing with Industry for competition. INR 120 (@ 2009 prices) is too high in some pockets such as Rajasthan to compete with industry such as solar. It is well documented that solar industry is suffering due to NREGA. The bill of $9 bn for 2011-12 is too high.

Engineers Day Celebration of Regional Engineering College (RECK / NITK) Kurukshetra

Well this was my first alumni gathering of my undergraduate alma matter which I attended. I was fortunate to be in India this time. A very interesting discussion was - "Who is an Engineer". There were various answers to this question, but most of them centered around - "Someone who creates something of value is an Engineer". The word "Engineer" has lost significance in the current era in terms of the old definition which segregates "Engineering" under various streams. Past Trends Whether it is IT or Globalization or any other technology / macroeconomics related change, all of them have significant impact on Engineering. Consider the fact that only very few of my batchmates, who passed out of RECK in 2002 are now doing the core of Engineering related work. Incidentally most of them landed jobs in IT or have shifted to IT. It is the external change, which changes the orientation of professional. Especially in India, IT growth overshadowed the growth of any other sector. Future of Engineering Now the pertinent question is - "What is future of Engineering?". As we have witnessed in the last decade the pace of economic growth had guided the orientation of Engineers. It could be Biotech or Renewable Energy decade of 2010-2020. Questions which Engineering institutes like RECK need to answer 1. How to stay ahead of the change curve in Macro-economics 2. How to stay relevant in the uncertain future 3. How to help existing alumni to cope up with these changes.

REC (Renewable Energy Certificate) Mechanism in India

The REC mechanism was introduced with lot of Pomp and Show in the beginning. There was a bait for the developers to 1. Take high ROI for some years and recover the cost 2. Ready to Trade Market for immediate cash realizations Prices were definitely attractive with floor and ceiling fixed at 9 and 12. It was definitely a profitable venture as per some of the experts. Despite all good promises, it failed on the following fronts 1. Due to lack of strong RPO (Renewable Purchase obligations), most of the REC would be sold around year end (or end of a any other review period if RPO review durations are reduced in future). This makes the revenues from a REC backed project uneven and adds to lots of uncertainties. 2. Grid projects can only be supported by subsidy due lack of grid parity in solar till now (situation may be different beyond 2015). So, Off-grid projects (which are economically viable as of now) need to be included in REC mechanism in reasonable scenario. As of now it is absent and I am stumped why? 3. What would substitute “REC” after 2017 4. Lack of visibility of pricing beyond 2017 even if policy remains intact It is highly likely that prices of modules will reduce further due to both market growth and technology up gradations. So the capital cost is bound to decrease by 2017, but capital cost of a developer would be the cost he incurs right now. Hence, it is unfair to developer of 2012 than someone entering in 2017.

Impact of History on Economy of India

Well one of my friend once asked me that he wants to learn more about the Indian economy and he asked me how to approach. I told him that he has to first learn about the history of India to understand the economy of India.

History has an impeccable influence on the current state of economy of India. To start with Indian was never a pure agriculture based society even in the ancient history. Even in ancient times, we have a full fledged industry dotted by medical practioners, goldsmits, textile, services etc. In fact India was perhaps more vibrant economy than the west till late 1000 AD. The real decline of India started after the plunder of the wealth by the invaders from current Afghan region. Later on Muslim rulers, made the real dent, they robbed India of the trust and social coherence factor, most critical factor for business to survive. Crony Capitalism entered India for the first time during Akbar regime. Akbar was afraid of the Hindu strength and hence he started a lot of equity related reforms. Most of the rules in business space was influenced by the interest of the courtiers.

Though Mughals plundered India to satisfy their whims and fancies (100 wives of Akbar, 40000 people for Taj Mahal are proof of this), the English were planned in their plundering of India. They systematically introduced the private land ownership, substituted the Indian handicraft industry

He has read a lot of Gandhi and was confused as "Why India did not adopted the Gandhian Model of development after independence?". Gandhi model of development was decentralized (Sarvodya - Gandhi translation of Ruskin Bond "universal uplift" of "unto the last") by Nehru's model ended up being  that of centrally strong planned economy. One strange question was regarding the 5 year planning process. Nehru had nostalgia of "centralized planning" from his appointment as chairman of "National Planning Commission" in 1938. Though this has been copied from the Russian Model of economic planning, it has unique Indianess in that Nehru could not dare to challenge the established big corporate houses of that time. Corporate houses have used the congress leaders as a deterrent to some time protect their interests. In fact Nehru (as well as congress) was heavily under influence of the "Bombay Plan" of influential corporates of that time under leadership of Adarsh Dalal.

Crony Capitalism strengthened its roots once again when same Adarsh Dalal was made chairman of "Planning and development department" in 1944. Gandhi has a different opinion as stated by the S.N. Agarwal and M. N. Roy in 1944 to promote
1. Small Scale
2. Labor Intensive
3. Rural Industry

Central Planning was key to Indian economy till 7th plan and was replaced by "Indicative Planning method of France" in the 8th plan.

The Role of Management Consulting | 6 AM Pacific

The Role of Management Consulting | 6 AM Pacific

The above is an intelligent piece of analysis. There are 2 very important pieces.

It is widely known that MC (Management Consulting) firms works closely with the companies and clients. This way they bring a lot of information from industry to the companies, but at the same time, they take out a lot of information (read secrets). Its for the companies to analyse whether there are on the winning end of this balance.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/144e6728-4a87-11e0-82ab-00144feab49a.html#axzz1GFw13xEE


Secondly, MC provide core strategies to the businesses. This marks a big question on those businesses themselves and more so on their leaders. If some company hires an MC, it has surrendered to its useless leadership and accepted external help. The big question is what kind of future, the company holds with such leadership. No wonder why so many company failed to implement or achieve what MC has professed in their glossy PPT's. Even there is a growing outcry against MC's by companies such as Coco-Cola, GE, Arcelor Mittal etc.

But I want to add something here. Actually, MC's are really good but only if they are used as a tool. Having myself worked in MC, I can tell you MC can be helpful, but only if there is a strong leadership at the company to monitor an Consulting Engagement.

My German friend told me that 2 biggest reasons for success of Germany vis-a-vis other western world is
1. Board seat for Employee representatives (which no MC will advise for)
2. Never hire MC's (though they hire lot of Process Consulting firms and Technology Consulting firms)

McKinsey Engagement: Exclusive Behind-the-Scenes Story | Firmsconsulting – About Management Consulting

McKinsey Engagement: Exclusive Behind-the-Scenes Story | Firmsconsulting – About Management Consulting


I really found this post as a true picture of a consulting assignment. It may be a bit pro_McK but still good insight. The real picture is bit more dirty than this and their is lot of CCP (Cut Copy Paste) in consulting assignments. Recently a lot of consulting firms esp Mckinsey have been blamed for plagiarism (self-plagiarism more often),cheating, insider trading and cross selling secrets (Bench-marking in good words)

Plagiarism at Indian Schools

Today, when I was doing some browsing about the success factors for a successful M&A for Indian companies, JLR came to my mind. I first came across a research report by an Investment bank and then a project report by some IIT/IIM students. I was shocked that these project reports were copied word by word from the Investment bank report.
http://www.slideshare.net/purval/tata-motors-jlr-deal-part2
http://www.scribd.com/doc/9156583/Merger-and-Acquisition-Tata-Jlr-garg
These students would have been turned out of school if it would have been any global Business or Technology school. There is zero (and it is definitely 0) tolerance for plagiarism at any top school, but that is not the case at premium schools in India.

Well I never want to badmouth the so called premium institutes in India but then this does not mean that we become irrational. They are degrading in quality and reports about this degradation are surfacing in media. Just 2 days ago, Jairam Ramesh spoke something, which everyone knows – “Faculty and Research at IIM’s and IIT’s sucks”. There were reports of IIT’s thesis being copied and other. IIT Kanpur recently was in media for a copied thesis case. 2 days ago Sandeep Dikshit voiced the same about a reputed college.

Hope Kapil Sibal, Minister – HRD is listening and start doing something radical instead of fighting with Jairam Ramesh..........Ha Ha .......I am definitely away from any politics

What I learnt most from my MBA?

1. Structuring of my thought process - I was doing a lot of Stakeholder management in HPCL. But I was doing it based on my intuition. During my MBA, I learnt how to identify relevant stakeholders, prioritize them and map their actions based on incentives.

2. Holistic View - I used to see business as marketing and sales in Silos, but I learnt in my MBA that they are just a tiny cog in the whole business dynamics, which involves a lot of interactions between various business functions. For Example, Finance is an important consideration for designing marketing strategy to fix margins and potential investments

3. Global View - My international colleagues and my Exchange provided me an opportunity to gain view of the world as a whole. I was able to appreciate the impact of the financial crisis in Europe, by seeing their state welfare programs. On business front also, I was able to appreciate why Germans are so competitive that rest of Europe- It is the presence of the unions on the secondary board of companies.

Is Recession Round the corner?? - Part 2 (Slowdown)

This is in reference to my earlier article on recession. Now I am bit convinced that India is on edge of a slowdown at least for the moment

http://luckylehana.blogspot.com/2011/04/is-recession-round-corner.html

Consider these
1. Real Estate Slump – After a booming 2010, there is considerable overcapacity in Real Estate, which have been responsible for revival of downstream industries such as Steel and cement.

Cement have already shown that the overcapacity will push the margins downwards
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/india-cement-sector-to-see-overcapacity-aheadfitch_437483.html

A very good note
http://www.thinkindia.net.in/2010/08/an-unreal-market-.html

I have myself taken note of the situation – The labor costs are cutting the margins of the small business owners

2. Governance Issues – I think (my personal opinion) Congress is responsible for many of the woes India has currently. I have lost the count of the scams and Congress leaders are still hiding around (including Manmohan, Sonia and PC). They are shedding their responsibilities by playing aloof.

Anyway, I think there are more 2G, CWG, Adarsh in the bag.

3. Outflow of Funds – India is the only BRIC country to have net outflow by FII in 2010-11. This indicates that the FII does not believe in the Indian story or they are scared away by the 2G, CWG etc

4. Inflation – I don’t buy the contention the inflation in India is only due to poor Supply Chains. Having seen the loosing of purse by the Government in 2008-09 for the cheap lending and popular schemes, I am convinced that wrong fiscal and monetary policies are responsible for this monster

I consider Inflation as the worst factor to derail the Indian growth story.
Inflation is nothing but redistribution of wealth. Inflation makes worth of the currency you hold to tumber but increases the worth of the land and the house you are building to increase. A real estate developer (assuming input prices takes time to increase) gains in real terms through inflation but the workers and the engineers working for him loses in real terms through inflation. So, inflation is equivalent to shifting of economic benefits from a lagging earner to a leading earner.

Unfortunately, increase in wages is a lagging indicator in economic recovery. Hence, wage earners will be the one, who will suffer the most in an inflation cycle.

Is Recession Round the corner??

I was thinking about the business situation in real life and found a very interesting case in my home only.

My brother has an AC sales, distribution and repair business in Gurgaon. In last 5 years, he had seen his percentage margins going south slowly but steadily. The trend accelerated in last 2 years due increase in
1. Cost of Capital (10% Fixed income rates in India)
2. Cost of Labor

The repair is the worst hit business as cost of spairs and labor cost of mechanic has increased by 100% literally, while the unit repair rates are pretty same. Much of it has to do with the 15% food/commodity inflation in India. He has to decide to either run at loss or shut down repair business totally.

I am not sure what is the way out of this situation. I have advised him that Recession is round the corner. Wait for the inputs to subsidize.

Things apart, some of the concepts of marketing such as finding blue ocean of niche segments seem to be too hard to implement if you just have 0.001% of the highly fragmented market.

Short USD Long Yen, Major Asian Currencies

Just an hour ago, US Dolloar (aka Treasury) is downgraded for the first time by US based agency - S&P. Though it has already been downgraded by the biggest investor in US economy - China. When this happened some 6 months ago, almost all my American Classmates at my Alternative investment class, in Kenan Flagler Business School, UNC were of the opinion that this is none-sense and nobody cares a damn about Chinese downgrade.

I argued a bit but then there were people, who believe that they have better knowledge of the financial world. This points out one of the biggest problems with US business Schools Graduates. They operate as just like Muslim Ghetto's and believes the world outside the ghetto is stupid. THANK GOD, I went to CEIBS to get broad outlook of world rather than narrow US based outlook of world.

Anyway, its time for some quick buck. I am sure many long-short macro funds would have milled millions by now.

Unemployed from last 2 years

Last 2 years have been wonderful journey. I went to CEIBS for my MBA with both sweet and bitter experience. This included a brief stint of 5 months to US at Kenan Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina.

From last 2 years, I have been away from the regular hectic life of being in a job and doing something which you do not enjoy sometimes. Last 2 years were bit unique in the sense that I was doing only what I really want to do. For Example - I did 3 internships during my MBA and 4th just after my MBA. This is sort of a record but I really liked working on these small projects. I believe that I have created strong impact in 2 of my internships.

This made me to realize that this unemployment of last 2 years have made me to realize something unique about me that I yearn for and enjoy creating impact. The next big challenge would be to maintain the same enthusiasm of creating impact in short span of time, when I join a new job.

I thank my luck for being unemployed for last 2 years.