A P J No More

Rare breed of politician in Inida

Abdul kalam was a great source of inspiration

NYSE suspended trading

NYSE suspended trading

Restart - Blogothon

My near and dear ones have been complaining that my blog has died, so i have decided to include atleast some blog post as frequent as possible

Trending today are

1. Shiela Dikshit might get into problem due to CNG scam
2. OROP - one rank one pension, Modi Govt. might into problem
3. Land Boundaries of WB, Meghalaya, Assam & Tripura might change on land accord with Bangladesh

what effects a common person like me the most

1. ITO station to start from Monday, i can go to sales tax and other Govt. offices by metro now, else i have to get down at Pragati and then hire an auto, which is very tiring at times, forget taking own vehicle in ITO, it's a mess especially near that passport office
2. Saudi-Yemen getting more entangled might effect Saudi in future as Iran hell bent on supporting the Houthi rebels -> might increase fuel prices in future
3. Yahoo maps used to be only working english map website in China, then its a problem for english only people in China

Hitler Road, New Delhi - Change in address of Culture Minister of India

Today the charismatic leader, Narender Modi delivered another excellent speech in Madison Square. It was magnificent and he completely mesmerized the crowd both in US and the TV viewers in India equally. I will not go into those details.

One thing, which I caught hold of from his speech was this sentence "Slavery of 1000-1200" years. I am not trained as historian but I just wanted to mark that date

1192 - Prithviraj was defeated and that marked the long period of slavery of India till 1947

So, 1947 - 1192 = 755 Years

So, as per this dateline, India was under slavery only for 755


Did Modi got his numbers wrong or was this just a slip of tongue or a gross overestimation. I think it was none. What perhaps Modi was referring to was

1. Attack on India (old upto Sindu / Indus river) by Afghan / Turks
2. Attack from north on Samarkand

Well the dates are right to mark 1000 years of slavery, but perhaps the reference suits more to
1. Afghanistan
2. Pakistan

India (as currently defined) was slave only for 750 years. Nothing wrong in mentioning 1000-1200 with a broader view, but consider the fact that - Pakistan considers start of those years of slavery as years of liberation from rule of "Idol Worshipers"

So, Pakistan will consider these years as years of glory. But what about India, we still have an "Aurangzeb Road, Babar Road...... and so many other roads in the names of people, who committed mass murders going by each and every historical record" Perhaps this was done around 1940's when Indian elite was trying to convince Muslims to stay with India. ............But do we still need to keep these road names same and remove the names of those mass murderers and looters.

Some might agree they were rulers and aristocrat...blah blah.......then lets have a road by name of

1. Yakubu, for their achievements in Nigeria
2. Jamat-e-Eslami , Indian Govt. can request Bangladesh for special release for ingratiation 
3. Turkey for their achievements in Greece, Antolia and Kurdistan
4. Hitler, we all know
5. Mugabe, still alive, can come to inauguration of road
6. Khmer Rouge, some still alive

This will show India is recognize the roads by not only the suppressors and murderers on national level but on international level.

Where are the muslim girls ?

There has been 2 diktats much in news regarding Garbha

1. BJP MLA in MP stating that entry by only ID
2. Some association that Garbha only for Hindus

Now consider 2 contrasting issues

1. Going by all the demographic nos. as discussed by me in  UCC and Ticking Time Bomb, it is quite clear that Muslims have better sex ratio than Hindus
2. But still if you see the inter-religion marriage, in 99% of cases (as per survey and media reports) are cases of Muslim Boy - Hindu Girl. 

The above mentioned facts does not seem to reconcile with each other. The main issue, we are missing here are
1. Sex ration is for overall population
2. Marriages are mostly in the age group of 20-35.
3. Within this age group the sex-ratio of Hindus and Muslims are not very different form each other

So, it reconciles the above mentioned anomaly, but now it raises one more important question. If the sex ratio are same, then

1. Why only Muslim men marry Hindu girl and not the reverse Muslim girl marry Hindu men ?
2. Why only Muslim men are in Garba not muslim women

Well some might explain it as "Love Jihad", but I will not go in politics. I think the "Love Jihad" may be a reason, but there are other reasons also

1. Islam (as far as I know) is like a cult and hence it is like a one way jail, you can enter on your will but can not exit as it is treated as treacherous 
2. Islam welcomes someone coming to Islam (like a girl marrying)
3. Islam consider marrying of Muslim girl to non-muslim as crime

If some proponents of these "Love Jihad" and other "Conspiracy theories" see in detail, there are some fundamental reasons and most of the so-branded "Love Jihad" may not be intentional. (though I  personally have no stand on this issue and see it purely from factual point of view)

Again, I will refrain myself from political angle to this sensitive issue, but it point out to a very pertinent question - "Where are those Muslim Girls?"

Unfortunately, I am not able to find any data on the percentage of girls based on religion in higher education. So, I am still exploring answers to this question.

Urgent Need of UCC (Uniform Civil Code) to prevent future tensions - “Ticking Demographic Bomb”

Urgent Need of UCC (Uniform Civil Code) to prevent future tensions - “Ticking Demographic Bomb”

(There are many gross overestimation done to make ease in analysis, but still trends will be similar)

Not going into the details and issues around "Love Jihad", I did some detailed analysis of the gender ratio's of Hindus, Muslims, Christians, Sikhs etc in India and came to following conclusions

1.        Muslims constitute around 15% of population officially (18% unofficially due to Bangladeshis and other illegal and ignored)

2.        Their (950) sex ratios are better than Hindus (931)

3.        All 5 major non-muslim communities such as Hindus, Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains have lower percentage of percentage of population in 0-6 years age than national average

4.        Jains just have 10% in 0-6 age, while Hindus have 15% in 0-6 years

5.        Child sex ratio is all time low at 914 in 2011

6.        Christian (2.3%) is the only group with more men than women

7.        In addition to this Muslims (3.4) have a higher TFR (Total Fertility Rates) than all major communities such as Hindus (2), Christians (2.1), Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains (1.4), who interestingly have lower percentage of percentage of population in 0-6 years age than national average

8.         India is 18% of world population, with population growth rate of 1.41% ranking 102 in world. India is primarily young with 65% below 35 years. 50% is below 25 years. That mean this 50% is in the age around marriage

9.         The worst male/female ratio are in the age group 0-10 years (1.14)

10.     The second worst and of immediate concern is 15–24 years: 1.09 male(s)/female

11.     Previous generation was in comfortable range with 65 years and over: 0.908 male(s)/female and current generation is also not very bad

The above data clearly indicate a demographic socio-economic Reverse “Love Jihad” is bound to happen. Let us analyze what happened in Haryana

1.         What people in Haryana did when they found they don’t have brides, they went outside from UP / Himachal

2.         They did not went to Rajasthan at it was equally pathetic

Now let us imagine that Hindus, Muslims, Christians are tiny states like Haryana, UP, Himanchal. Let do some scenario analysis

Current Scenario

With m/f ratio close to 1.0, no major threat

Short Term Scenario (5-10 years)

15-25 reaches age of marriage, but we have 9% more men than women, means 9% men will not get bride. This is same as Haryana situation.

Solution - > Bride import will begin to start

Initially Muslims will be difficult to convince to marry to Hindus, so may be Christians will be the first exporter of brides to Hindus/Jains /Sikhs etc

Medium Term Scenario (10-15 years)

Now lets imagine this 0-10 years group with male to female ratio of 1.14 reaches the age of 20 after 20 years

Scenario 1 :- (Reverse Love Jihad) Indian muslims accepts export of brides to Hindus as Hindus lack them. Struggle for brides will intensify. If Muslims accepts UCC (Uniform Civil Code), there are high chances they will mingle themselves with mainstream.

Scenario 2:- Some ISIS like organization get upstart in India and ask Muslim to reject UCC and harden Muslim Extremism. Indian Muslims deny export of brides to Hindus. Hindus still need them then it is a dangerous situation which will either lead to forced conversion of either Hindus to Muslims to marry or will lead clashes.

Hence, UCC is immediate need of the hour to help bridge the divide between Hindus and Muslims so that there can be easy exchange of brides. Similar to case of Haryana, Bride exchange between territories (read here religion) is bound to happen. Else this is “Ticking Demographic Bomb”

Also, this also breaks apart a myth that Islam is anti-woman, yes it is indeed if you look the pity situation of women in Islam, but perhaps Hindus are more anti-women. This is because, even though Hindus have higher respect and stature of women in society than Islam, but the higher class hindus are simply preventing women birth in the first place.

Digital Marketing

What do you think is the most effective way of using digital marketing?

Following is part of my comment on the above mentioned topic -

Though, the decision is subjective based on the product, competitors and buyers profile, but this is the most important question, which almost all marketing managers face. Though social media has zoomed ahead in recent years, most marketing people still put their budget on the SEO and Analytics. Based on my own consulting assignments in Digital Marketing domain in China, I believe there are 2 problems as to why Social Media coverage may not be effective.
1. Horizontal Issues - Most marketing managers have not been trained or are unaware of the techniques/tools which can be used for analysis of Social Media. When it comes to convincing team members, then probably social media fails.
2. Vertical Issues - Existing Technique/Tools are yet to prove themselves. Partly because Social Media is itself a recent event. When it comes to convincing Finance manager or Top Management, then Social Media investments mostly fails to convince.

Why Taxing Rich is a stupid idea

There is an interesting discussion about taxing the rich and its pitfalls.

It is such a simple formula, which unfortunately Development economics fail to acknowledge with their blind follow up of the Differential taxing regime. I am not rich, but I am still not in support of taxing the rich excessively. Actually, rich are the one who facilitate capital formation and investment, which is necessary for economic growth. But at the same time, inheritance tax should be there as this leads to creation of inequality. 

REC Dilemma

The REC Dilemma (Extract from one of my post on another forum)

Govt. does not have money for a long term incentive /subsidy. I guess some state governments would come up with innovative mechanisms (remember it was Gujarat, who mobilized the whole solar sector in India through their INR15 PPA in 2010.

I agree there are legal instruments, which can be water tight, but Private off takers would shun from them. One more factor is that soon the supply is going to outstrip the demand. So, the Private off takers would have the lion share in negotiating terms of the PPA contract.

If the Govt. is not able to enforce the RPO, then REC is dead before 2017. Guess - who will risk their investments in say 2014 onward, towards a mechanism, which has no visibility beyond next 3 years. If there is no strong step by the Govt., then I strongly believe that the last REC project would be commissioned in 2013 and there would be no project 2014 on-wards. Sometimes, I got perplexed to see the nos. regarding the pricing and volume on the exchanges. Is this scenario sustainable??

Way forward is for the Govt. to link financing of REC's (or any other new mechanisms) through some out of the box RPO implementation. One more thing, we are not paying attention to the RPO obligated entities. Step into their shoes and you would find RPO is not a fair game for them. How can you penalize them when they are struggling for their own survival. Industrial growth in last 6 months have been below 2% for 3 months.

AFSPA

Someone said AFSPA should be repealed. I was also of the similar opinion till I devolved deep into AFSPA.

I fully sympathize and agree with what naysayers said. But my dear friends - consider the situation in which the militants are roaming around frequently. Would you prefer a Army personnel to stand on the road or the militant. I for sure would feel safer with presence of Army than presence of militant. There was a Bollywood movie in which a ATS (Anti Terror squad) has killed some terrorist preemptively. The lawyer of the policemen asked the same question to the judge - Who would you give gun to protect your house, a militant or a cop ?????

The response was -

...what if the army presumes you to be a terrorist?The army under AFSPA can arrest and detain anyone without warrant if they feel that the person might be a terrorist which is the deprivation of basic human right

Dear Lucky, It was but after many incidents that the cry for repealing this act has been raised by the masses in the north east. I think it was not advocated to remove it from anywhere else in India where it was needed. And please..don't refer bollywood movies to understand matters of such grave seriousness.. I can't comment on Kashmir. It is a sensitive issue. But I empathize with the innocent people who suffer because of Power Misuse...Its only the common folks who suffer. You have to be there to understand the real situation..

Yes, the issue is complex and I agree that you have to be there to feel it. I agree its easier to write while sitting in comfortable place in Delhi but the situation might have been different if I would have been in Manipur or Kashmir. The presumptions of army are really not the right thing. But still we need to find solution to improve the AFSPA like intense scrutiny of the case by other central agencies and solution deadline of say 1 month. I believe AFSPA is evil but their non presence is worse. It may lead to violation of human right of 1 out of 10000 individuals, but it is collectively good for rest all 9,999 people. But yes, the agony of that 1 individual is something which needs solution. 

The world is not flat - Google+

The world is not flat - Google+

Domestic Solar Panel Manufacturing Industry in India

There is surely something wrong.

Link to the Report on Domestic Content Requirement


Either everyone is wrong or India is only wrong. Whatever be the case, at the moment, you have to be Roman if you are in Rome. India should do something to protect the domestic solar Industry.

1. If the domestic solar industry flourishes, then they would be able to reduce the cost in medium term and match the cost in long term. 
2. There is interest of Solar developers but that is short term interest for the country.

Is solar going the same way the heavy industry for Thermal Power Production was going 10 years ago. There was a time when 40% of the Chinese Thermal Industry was based on demand from India.

Govt. need to put in substantial efforts to make India a manufacturing hub.

Economics blogging: Salute to the India of ideas | The Economist

Economics blogging: Salute to the India of ideas | The Economist

I really liked the statements
1. And perhaps the country’s brightest economists are simply rubbish at communicating sharp ideas to the policymakers, activists, media types, business leaders and members of the public who could make use of them.

2. The contributors, by and large, are Indians, or people of Indian origin based in America and elsewhere. Their challenge is to engage their countrymen. If they succeed, the rewards could be magnificent.

This means the solution is the Indian economist but not the one like Kaushik Basu, whom I once read told sarcastically, about beggars - "if he does not accept 10 paisa (or something really small) then you will say this as a result of inflation"

Economist like Kaushik Basu are the real perils of India as they know simple facts but are biased due to their positions and alienation. Such economist are dangerous for India's future. But you know what - Govt. has made him along with the legendary (sarcastically used) to be the "Top Economist of India" - Thats the peril of India.  

MGNREGA

Mahatama Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, 2005 This was perhaps one of the rare incidence when all the parties are speaking in the favor of once particular scheme. This scheme have really moved the things and for the first time perhaps stakeholders seems to be working in sync for a national scheme. Most important the scheme has a local flavor as the labor has to provided within 5 kms of radius of the village Stakeholders 1. Rural Farmer (landless or laborer) Family as job card is for full family. Now this scheme has included 5 cr (of 1.7 cr families) = one fifts of 25 cr rural labor (not population) 2. BC 3. Adhar 4. Auditor 5. Collector 6. State Govt (pays 1/4 of material cost and Administrative Cost). Have to pay unemployment allowance of min 100 day wage otherwise. 7. Central Govt.(pays 3/4 of material cost, wages and some admin) Issues 1. Reimbursement (allocation) not as per demand 2. Audit related 3. No skill upgradation 4. Poor Quality Work 5. Fake Enrollments AP has been considered a success story as they have appointed 3rd party auditors. My opinion :- The scheme is good but the object is wrong. I would repeat the impression of Deng Xiaoping - Move people out of villages to factory NREGA is doing opposite. It is taking people from factories to villages. It is sort of competing with Industry for competition. INR 120 (@ 2009 prices) is too high in some pockets such as Rajasthan to compete with industry such as solar. It is well documented that solar industry is suffering due to NREGA. The bill of $9 bn for 2011-12 is too high.

Engineers Day Celebration of Regional Engineering College (RECK / NITK) Kurukshetra

Well this was my first alumni gathering of my undergraduate alma matter which I attended. I was fortunate to be in India this time. A very interesting discussion was - "Who is an Engineer". There were various answers to this question, but most of them centered around - "Someone who creates something of value is an Engineer". The word "Engineer" has lost significance in the current era in terms of the old definition which segregates "Engineering" under various streams. Past Trends Whether it is IT or Globalization or any other technology / macroeconomics related change, all of them have significant impact on Engineering. Consider the fact that only very few of my batchmates, who passed out of RECK in 2002 are now doing the core of Engineering related work. Incidentally most of them landed jobs in IT or have shifted to IT. It is the external change, which changes the orientation of professional. Especially in India, IT growth overshadowed the growth of any other sector. Future of Engineering Now the pertinent question is - "What is future of Engineering?". As we have witnessed in the last decade the pace of economic growth had guided the orientation of Engineers. It could be Biotech or Renewable Energy decade of 2010-2020. Questions which Engineering institutes like RECK need to answer 1. How to stay ahead of the change curve in Macro-economics 2. How to stay relevant in the uncertain future 3. How to help existing alumni to cope up with these changes.

REC (Renewable Energy Certificate) Mechanism in India

The REC mechanism was introduced with lot of Pomp and Show in the beginning. There was a bait for the developers to 1. Take high ROI for some years and recover the cost 2. Ready to Trade Market for immediate cash realizations Prices were definitely attractive with floor and ceiling fixed at 9 and 12. It was definitely a profitable venture as per some of the experts. Despite all good promises, it failed on the following fronts 1. Due to lack of strong RPO (Renewable Purchase obligations), most of the REC would be sold around year end (or end of a any other review period if RPO review durations are reduced in future). This makes the revenues from a REC backed project uneven and adds to lots of uncertainties. 2. Grid projects can only be supported by subsidy due lack of grid parity in solar till now (situation may be different beyond 2015). So, Off-grid projects (which are economically viable as of now) need to be included in REC mechanism in reasonable scenario. As of now it is absent and I am stumped why? 3. What would substitute “REC” after 2017 4. Lack of visibility of pricing beyond 2017 even if policy remains intact It is highly likely that prices of modules will reduce further due to both market growth and technology up gradations. So the capital cost is bound to decrease by 2017, but capital cost of a developer would be the cost he incurs right now. Hence, it is unfair to developer of 2012 than someone entering in 2017.

Impact of History on Economy of India

Well one of my friend once asked me that he wants to learn more about the Indian economy and he asked me how to approach. I told him that he has to first learn about the history of India to understand the economy of India.

History has an impeccable influence on the current state of economy of India. To start with Indian was never a pure agriculture based society even in the ancient history. Even in ancient times, we have a full fledged industry dotted by medical practioners, goldsmits, textile, services etc. In fact India was perhaps more vibrant economy than the west till late 1000 AD. The real decline of India started after the plunder of the wealth by the invaders from current Afghan region. Later on Muslim rulers, made the real dent, they robbed India of the trust and social coherence factor, most critical factor for business to survive. Crony Capitalism entered India for the first time during Akbar regime. Akbar was afraid of the Hindu strength and hence he started a lot of equity related reforms. Most of the rules in business space was influenced by the interest of the courtiers.

Though Mughals plundered India to satisfy their whims and fancies (100 wives of Akbar, 40000 people for Taj Mahal are proof of this), the English were planned in their plundering of India. They systematically introduced the private land ownership, substituted the Indian handicraft industry

He has read a lot of Gandhi and was confused as "Why India did not adopted the Gandhian Model of development after independence?". Gandhi model of development was decentralized (Sarvodya - Gandhi translation of Ruskin Bond "universal uplift" of "unto the last") by Nehru's model ended up being  that of centrally strong planned economy. One strange question was regarding the 5 year planning process. Nehru had nostalgia of "centralized planning" from his appointment as chairman of "National Planning Commission" in 1938. Though this has been copied from the Russian Model of economic planning, it has unique Indianess in that Nehru could not dare to challenge the established big corporate houses of that time. Corporate houses have used the congress leaders as a deterrent to some time protect their interests. In fact Nehru (as well as congress) was heavily under influence of the "Bombay Plan" of influential corporates of that time under leadership of Adarsh Dalal.

Crony Capitalism strengthened its roots once again when same Adarsh Dalal was made chairman of "Planning and development department" in 1944. Gandhi has a different opinion as stated by the S.N. Agarwal and M. N. Roy in 1944 to promote
1. Small Scale
2. Labor Intensive
3. Rural Industry

Central Planning was key to Indian economy till 7th plan and was replaced by "Indicative Planning method of France" in the 8th plan.

The Role of Management Consulting | 6 AM Pacific

The Role of Management Consulting | 6 AM Pacific

The above is an intelligent piece of analysis. There are 2 very important pieces.

It is widely known that MC (Management Consulting) firms works closely with the companies and clients. This way they bring a lot of information from industry to the companies, but at the same time, they take out a lot of information (read secrets). Its for the companies to analyse whether there are on the winning end of this balance.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/144e6728-4a87-11e0-82ab-00144feab49a.html#axzz1GFw13xEE


Secondly, MC provide core strategies to the businesses. This marks a big question on those businesses themselves and more so on their leaders. If some company hires an MC, it has surrendered to its useless leadership and accepted external help. The big question is what kind of future, the company holds with such leadership. No wonder why so many company failed to implement or achieve what MC has professed in their glossy PPT's. Even there is a growing outcry against MC's by companies such as Coco-Cola, GE, Arcelor Mittal etc.

But I want to add something here. Actually, MC's are really good but only if they are used as a tool. Having myself worked in MC, I can tell you MC can be helpful, but only if there is a strong leadership at the company to monitor an Consulting Engagement.

My German friend told me that 2 biggest reasons for success of Germany vis-a-vis other western world is
1. Board seat for Employee representatives (which no MC will advise for)
2. Never hire MC's (though they hire lot of Process Consulting firms and Technology Consulting firms)

McKinsey Engagement: Exclusive Behind-the-Scenes Story | Firmsconsulting – About Management Consulting

McKinsey Engagement: Exclusive Behind-the-Scenes Story | Firmsconsulting – About Management Consulting


I really found this post as a true picture of a consulting assignment. It may be a bit pro_McK but still good insight. The real picture is bit more dirty than this and their is lot of CCP (Cut Copy Paste) in consulting assignments. Recently a lot of consulting firms esp Mckinsey have been blamed for plagiarism (self-plagiarism more often),cheating, insider trading and cross selling secrets (Bench-marking in good words)